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General cargo shippers, fighting for space against ecommerce giants, should “brace for impact” as the industry heads towards “one of the highest peaks ever in the industry of air cargo”, with a shortage of capacity likely to see airlines prioritising profits.

On the eve of the peak airfreight season, most Asian gateways are running without problems, but some bottlenecks have begun to appear, particularly out of South-east Asia and the Philippines.

And, according to the latest Dimerco Asia Pacific Freight Report, despite sinking volumes, exporters using container lines are also facing challenges as a result of a sharp rise in blank sailings.

UK businesses should consider diversifying their sourcing from a single market to suppliers in Africa, the Americas and Asia, according to a new report.

The report notes marked declines in the flow of goods between the UK and the EU since the 2020 introduction of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA).

It claims: “The TCA has caused severe disruption in UK-EU supply chains, particularly in consumer and intermediate goods. Smaller EU economies have been more affected by reduced UK export varieties, while larger ones have seen smaller declines.”

AI's ability to automate tasks such as processing the thousands of shipment update emails operators receive daily, reducing human error and saving time. AI can also provide greater milestone visibility, helping forwarders track shipments more accurately and efficiently.

Logistics companies are increasingly adopting AI for financial processes, such as handling accounts payable invoices and reconciling payments, to minimize errors and free up resources for higher-value tasks. For instance, Scarbrough Global has maintained a smaller finance team while doubling business size, thanks to AI. Other potential applications for AI in logistics include demand forecasting, route optimization, and automated warehousing. Herminjard advises companies to begin implementing AI where their specific pain points lie to maximize its impact.

Charter brokers have warned that the fourth quarter in air freight will be very busy – but that capacity is still available “for a price”.

However, brokers aren’t too concerned over impossibly high demand in the case of a US east and Gulf coast port strike.

“There is tight availability for widebody aircraft,” explained Dan Morgan-Evans, group cargo director for Air Charter Service. “Ecommerce is a factor everywhere really, and it’s a strong market.

Forwarders are claiming that access to real-time rates and bookings for dangerous goods is getting increasingly problematic.

But the cause is supposedly a combination of several factors and not indicative of unfolding trends.

Air cargo rates have gone up since the mid-2010s. According to the Baltic Exchange Air Freight Index (BAI), air freight from Hong Kong to Europe went from just under $3 per kg in 2015, to $8 highs in 2022, and in 2024, has remained at a level between $4-$5 per kg since.

But these figures do not tell the whole story. According to Baltic Exchange data, in May, ocean freight rates were sitting at 324% above the same period in 2023. Air cargo rates, likewise, have yet to return to their pre-pandemic levels. They likely will not, so long as the Red Sea disruption remains to stave off the new reality, masking the true impact of new additions to the air cargo fleet.

Current CO2 air cargo emission calculating methodology has been compared to the VW emissions scandal, with a lack of standardisation allowing passenger ‘greenwashing’ at the expense of cargo.

Freight volumes and rates begin to taper off, raising questions about the direction of demand.

Logistics professionals and analysts expect the air cargo market’s remarkably strong first half to build momentum during the final months of the year, when international shipping normally peaks to meet holiday shopping demand, leading to pressure on capacity and higher rates.