Forwarders told to 'brace for impact' as ecommerce bags air capacity

General cargo shippers, fighting for space against ecommerce giants, should “brace for impact” as the industry heads towards “one of the highest peaks ever in the industry of air cargo”, with a shortage of capacity likely to see airlines prioritising profits.

Head of global airfreight at DSV, Stefan Krikken, told delegates at today’s EU CBEC ecommerce forum in Liege: “When it comes to the peak this year, I think everyone knows it’s going to be very strong.

“It’s not only ecommerce, but also the Red Sea situation and the China-plus-one sourcing in southeast Asia. But when it comes to ecommerce, [those players] have such a big share right now that if the ecommerce shippers sneeze, the rest of the world gets a cold.”

Mr Krikken noted that Q4 will see “all the days that drive ecommerce movement”, including Black Friday, Singles day, Christmas and the upcoming launch of a new phone.

As The Loadstar reported yesterday the current and projected available air cargo capacity – if ecommerce continues its run – is not enough to cater for all the demand.

“From my experience across 15 years, aside from Covid, it’s never been as constrained and as difficult as it is now.

“I think the peak that we’re heading into is going to be unprecedented compared to the markets that we’ve seen before,” Mr Krikken warned.

He noted that what limited capacity there is shifting towards Asia “is now having a domino effect on other markets”.

“We want to make sure that we have the base load secured for our key customers and there’s only so many airplanes in the world, so you must be mindful and precise on how you manage this correctly,” he explained.

Head of global airfreight for DB Schenker, Asok Kumar, said: “We have commitments to our existing customers that we need to protect, and we will protect those commitments to the customers that are ‘bread and butter’ business, automotive industry, electronics, etc.

“Having said that, it’s clear that in order to get through that peak in a sustainable way, we need more capacity.”

Mr Asok revealed that DB Schenker has secured more capacity and is adding flight operations in September and October, which brings “an opportunity to support the ecommerce business”.

“But we cannot do that at the expense of our existing customers who we have long-term commitments and relationships with,” he said.

“And this is where I ask the air cargo carriers, how can we support the industry to get through this?”

Indeed, chief commercial officer for Air One Aviation, Peter Scholten, added: “Everybody who operates airlines is shifting the capacity to the Chinese market which will probably have a negative impact on all other markets where the capacity is drawn from.”

And chief commercial officer of Atlas Air, Richard Broekman, added that ecommerce companies out of China have been more active in securing longer term year-end-peak capacity.

“So, I think the big question is really for the regular shippers is are they just as prepared as the ecommerce companies?

“Do they have the lift they need? Are they prepared for the unforeseen? My estimate is, I don’t think they’re completely ready for what’s coming,” Mr Broekman said.

Mr Scholten concluded: “It’s a brace for impact.”

By: By Charlotte Goldstone in Liege
Source: Loadstar