Freighters to Maintain Dominance in Global Airfreight Despite Fleet Reductions

Despite a significant portion of the global freighter fleet being parked, freighters are poised to continue carrying a large share of global airfreight as the growth in bellyhold capacity slows. According to Tom Crabtree, Managing Director of air cargo research and consulting firm Transport Research Advisory, the momentum behind bellyhold capacity expansion, driven by the recovery of passenger networks, is tapering off—a trend expected to persist through 2024.

Recovery and Resurgence in Airfreight Demand
Crabtree notes that major trade lanes are on the path to recovery in the first half of the year, buoyed by strong e-commerce volumes and the disruption of ocean transport routes caused by the Red Sea crisis. This crisis has stretched container capacity, resulting in longer transit times and reduced available space, which in turn has driven an increase in sea-air traffic. The narrowing gap between air and ocean freight rates has further enhanced the appeal of airfreight.

Transpacific Arena Challenges
While passenger networks have largely returned to pre-COVID levels, the transpacific market—especially between the U.S. and China—remains an exception. This is due more to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, which has closed Russian airspace to North American airlines, than to the pandemic. U.S. airlines have successfully lobbied for restrictions on Chinese carriers, giving them a competitive advantage in stage length and fuel efficiency. This has reinforced the dominance of freighters in the transpacific sector, where the share of airfreight carried by freighters has increased from 82% in Q4 2021 to 90% in Q4 2023.

Sustained Role of Freighters in Global Air Cargo
Even with the full restoration of passenger networks, freighters are expected to maintain a significant share of global air cargo. In Q4 2023, freighters accounted for 59% of global air cargo, and Crabtree believes this figure will not fall below 50% in the near future. Interestingly, the global widebody freighter fleet has grown slowly, by about 140 units since 2013, and currently, 21% of the fleet is parked. As of May, 602 freighter aircraft were in storage, with narrowbody freighters making up 58% of this total.

Transformation in the Widebody Freighter Segment
As of late last year, 657 large widebody freighters were in service, with Boeing 747s comprising 45%, Boeing 777s 40%, and MD-11s 13%. The MD-11 segment has seen the steepest decline, shrinking from 111 units to 69 over the past 18 months—a 38% drop. Further reductions are expected as FedEx, one of the few remaining MD-11 operators, plans to downsize its fleet.

The global Boeing 747 fleet has also contracted by 11 units (4%) over the past 18 months. While the aircraft remains popular due to its nose door feature, there are concerns about the availability of maintenance support for the 747-400. Crabtree suggests that operators of converted 747s may eventually transition to large twin-engine freighters.

Future Outlook for Large Widebody Freighters
Crabtree indicates that the large widebody segment is on the verge of significant change. Boeing and Airbus have each received 55 orders for their upcoming 777-8F and A350 cargo planes. However, the supply of new large widebody freighters has slowed, with Boeing delivering only two new 777 freighters in the first five months of this year, compared to eight in the same period last year. Additionally, the slow progress in the certification of 777 conversion programs suggests that the large widebody segment of the global freighter fleet will not see substantial growth before the end of the year.

By: Ian Putzger
Source: Loadstar.com